Markets love a clean story, until geopolitics makes it messy.

The market is off to a volatile start as futures slid on Monday while gold hit a fresh record, as trade tensions between the US and Europe flared over President Trump’s push to take control of Greenland. Investors are watching whether the standoff turns into real tariffs or stays rhetorical, with the dollar weaker and volatility creeping back into the picture.

But what’s easy to miss is what tends to hold up when headlines get louder.

In risk-off moments, the market often rotates toward real assets and the inputs that power the physical economy. And few materials sit closer to the center of global infrastructure than copper.

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Freeport-McMoRan $FCX ( ▲ 0.88% ) is back on investors’ radar as copper prices hover near record highs. The mining giant sits at the center of the electrification buildout, with demand tied to grid upgrades, EVs, and data center expansion.

Copper demand remains strong across both US and global markets. Prices on the COMEX and London Metal Exchange are sitting near all-time highs, signaling underlying demand strength rather than short-term tariff distortions. For a miner with deep exposure to copper, that backdrop matters.

Yet Freeport has not fully benefited. A fatal accident at one of its Indonesian operations forced production cuts, weighing on near-term volumes and investor sentiment. The market has been pricing that disruption aggressively.

Management expects Indonesia to return to full production gradually through 2026 and 2027. The recovery is expected to be back-half weighted, with the majority of copper and gold output ramping later in the year.

Wall Street models reflect that trajectory. Analysts expect EBITDA to climb sequentially through 2026, driven by higher realized copper prices and improving volumes. Even conservative assumptions suggest earnings power improves meaningfully as production normalizes.

Freeport’s leverage to copper prices remains substantial. Management estimates that at $5 per pound copper, the company could generate $12 billion in EBITDA in 2026 and average more than $15 billion in the following two years.

Despite stronger pricing and a visible production rebound, Freeport trades at a modest multiple. Based on forward estimates, the stock sits near 7.5x EBITDA for 2026.

That discount reflects lingering uncertainty around Indonesia and copper volatility. But it also creates upside if operations stabilize and prices hold.

For investors seeking exposure to electrification, infrastructure, and global growth, copper remains central. And if earnings unfold as expected, Freeport may prove that this rally still has metal left in it.